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August 30, 2008

Palin’ in Comparison

Filed under: Current Affairs — mahout @ 11:55 am
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I didn’t think it was possible, but the political events of the last week have made the most exciting presidential race in a generation even more interesting.  First, the Democrats gathered in Denver for the four-day pep rally otherwise known as the Democratic National Convention.  A gloom hung over the convention, as the rift between the Obamas and Clintons was overblown by a media that could not find much that was substantive to say about the pageant.  It is a sad indictment of the corporate-controlled field of journalism today that over 500 reporters would fixate on a fictional pschyo-drama between the warring factions of the family.  Fortunately, both Hillary and Bill Clinton came out like good party soldiers with stirring and graceful speeches in support of Obama to at least neutralize the psycho-babble.  On the final night, Obama held court with yet another eloquent speech that he used to knock the convention out of the park at Invesco Field. 

But McCain had his own pair of nuts to flex, which he did forthwith.  He announced by next morning that his running mate would be a voluptuous young lightweight named Sarah Palin, a move which shocked all observers.  Her presence on the ticket can be sure to cause (below the) Beltway loin-stirring amongst many Republicans with her red-blooded cultural conservatism, and she may even poach a few disgruntled Hillary women.  However it is puzzling why McCain would pick this 44-year old beauty queen, Governor of Alaska and until just recently Mayor of a tiny Alaskan town nobody has heard of or even been to, over numerous other qualified candidates.  On his 72nd birthday, no less, a cruel reminder to the nation that this chick could be only inches away from the presidency- and handling the nuclear football.  Let’s be clear: Sarah Palin is not qualified to be the president.   Although Obama may also be a lightweight in Washington, what he brings would make Palin seem like a featherweight.

So while Obama doubled down on experience by choosing a grizzled white male Washington elder in Biden for his youthful ticket, McCain did the exact opposite by going for the virile and sultry Mrs. Palin, 28 years his junior.  She looks a lot more like Britney or Paris than Obama does.  Meanwhile, Barack is no longer the only guy with a funny name on the scene; no joke, the offspring of Sarah Palin are named Willow, Track, Trig, Piper, and Bristol.   Here is a quick analysis of how her being tapped for VP will affect the race. 

She’s a blank slate. In a sign of the division of our times, both left and right are projecting their own prejudices on Mrs. Palin, drawing on her nearly blank slate to suit their own preconceived points of view.  The bizarre result is that both sides are showing great happiness that she was chosen.  The right wing believes she will ensure victory by energizing the base with her pro-life stance, and her eagerness to drill for oil in places like ANWR in Alaska.  The left is eager to jump on her thin record of working on issues of national import and thinks this will sway voters toward Obama.

McCain’s experience card is neutralized. No longer can the McCain camp call Obama a vapid celebrity, or too inexperienced to be in charge of the U.S. executive branch.  Sarah is only a few years out of running a town of less than 10,000 people.  She is three years younger than Obama.  And Obama picked Biden, who most of the country would be comfortable with as president. 

Will she bring women’s votes?  The question of the day is how many women will be encouraged to vote for McCain now that his sidekick is female.  This will partly hinge on whether they discover her red-meat views against abortion.  And whether or not Hillary can convince her admirers to vote for Obama. 

Will average Americans connect with her? Part of Obama’s problem has always been his exotic background.  Half-black, raised partly in Indonesia and Hawaii, a mysterious Kenyan father with a Muslim name, etc.  Now here comes Sarah Palin, an outdoorsy ice fishing queen from Alaska, with an accent straight out of the movie Fargo, sons named Track and Trig, and who looks way better than a mother of five ought to be able to.

Her promise of change. The Republicans are trying to contrast Obama’s call for change with one of their own.  Palin represents a massive generational shift in the party- in theory if they won, she could be the party’s leader and even presidential nominee in the next 4-8 years.   She also bucked the corrupt old-boy Republican network in Alaska, and is therefore seen as an internal party crusader.  Meanwhile, McCain attempts to look like a maverick again after complaints of bending his positions to the right.  And a stud. 

McCain’s age.  Critically, McCain is 72, was tortured for some years, and has survived multiple bouts of skin cancer.  Voters will need to question not only if they are comfortable with a Vice President Palin, but a President Palin.

How the Obamans respond. Early on, Obama surrogates have criticized her lack of experience.  But that’s the knock on him, too.  How they separate the two will be critical to the race.

Biden vs. Palin. Will Biden run circles around the younger Palin?  I cannot fathom otherwise unless another brain aneurysm emerges in Biden’s head mid-debate, but if the debate and extended back and forth between them isn’t a knockout, that doesn’t bode well for Team Obama.

August 23, 2008

Biden: Hatchet Man

Filed under: Current Affairs — mahout @ 8:49 pm

"I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy."  - Senator Joe Biden (D-Hatchetville)

Politics begets strange bedfellows.  Obama’s candidate for VP was announced last night: Senator Joe Biden of Delaware.  There were many who thought Obama would end up choosing an old salt of Washington to be his running mate, and this seemed feasible to me.  But, as with all of the other candidates on the short list du jour, which included Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, Kathleen Sebelius, and some guy named (Chet) Edwards, I could not muster any excitement over the prospect of Joe Biden as the running-mate.  It is a damning statement about the Democratic party today, that few within its ranks outside Barack Obama can generate true national excitement. 

But that’s the point.  Obama has generated so much excitement that the new Republican swift-boat narrative has emerged: he’s too exciting, too much of a celebrity.  McCain and Co. have successfully used this strength as an entry point for their attack, turning it into the Achilles Heal.  The  Obama campaign is certainly not lacking for excitement.  I would say the biggest weakness of Obama, and the Democratic party, has been an inability to play offense well.  It’s one thing to attack, but attacking effectively is a completely different matter.  Your swings have to hit. 

Why is Biden where he is?  Not to shore up the ticket’s Washington experience, foreign policy credentials, or to reassure older white people from Biden’s generation. He’s on board specifically to play hardball.  When Biden attacked Obama, Obama wiped the blood off his nose, and liked the taste.  Joe Biden brings something to the table that many of the other prominent Democrats could not: a particularly feisty brand of attack-dog politics, one that even ventures into the realms of (*gasp*) political incorrectness, colloquialisms, f-bombs, and public lashings of other government officials both in America and abroad.  If he stays true to his track record, Biden could be very useful to the Obama campaign.  He could be the hatchet-man deputy that would allow Obama to stay above the fray and free to practice the "new kind of politics" he talks about, while his boy with 30 years of Washington experience does the dirty work down in the trenches.  Make no mistake, Biden would enjoy this role immensely too.

The implications for the campaign are clear.  Biden will go after both McCain and McCain’s own running mate like a lusty pit-bull, while Obama can stay magnanimous and praise McCain’s service to America.  Biden will be difficult to defeat in a debate.  Plus, Biden will surely out-maneuver McCain’s running-mate on foreign policy, be it the Russia-Georgia war, Iran, or Iraq, as the Republican field is filled with foreign-policy dunces and chicken-hawks who have have brought us into the national-security wasteland we are in today. 

Biden is ambitious, as we know he wanted to be president for at least the last 20 years.  There is no doubt in my mind that he will run his own little fiefdom during the campaign, and Obama will let him loose to do so as long as he doesn’t cross him. 

In the Obama administration, Biden will still be a useful sidekick.  He could play a large role in getting legislation rammed through as he calls on his old buddies from Congress.  He could continue to stay on the offensive, doing the negative PR that is necessary while allowing Obama to continue staying on a positive message.  A classic example: when it comes time to nominate a new Supreme Court Justice, Obama could sing the high praises of the Judge, while Biden could circulate around Washington, threatening to cut funding for this project or that, or questioning the credentials of another judge who was short-listed and could emerge with insurgent support.

Now that I’ve thought about it, Biden may not be such a bad choice.  Think about it, Markos.